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Ariel Center for Policy Research (ACPR) |
NATO’s policy on Extended Integrated Air-Defense (EIAD) weaves together four distinct strands: deterrence, counterforce, passive defense (including arms control) and active defense. At the moment, deterrence is accorded the most importance. NATO’s counterforce capabilities are strong, but there is considerable debate in Europe as to precisely how and when these might be employed. Furthermore, the elements of EIAD are not only mutually reinforcing but also competitive to a degree. Arms-control or effective counterforce capabilities could reduce the passive defense burden. Alas, furnishing an appropriate level of passive and active defense for anything but deployed forces would be prohibitively costly. Nor could pure defense offer total protection; providing passive defenses for entire populations is largely impracticable and would offer only scant protection against WMD. Active defenses, by contrast, could be circumvented by unconventional delivery means, including acts of terrorism involving WMD, and, in any case, could not be made wholly impermeable to orthodox threats. A major difficulty is discerning and achieving the appropriate blend of EIAD ingredients in a mercurial, scenario-dependent environment, for this is the key to force design and strategic planning. Although the USA is investing considerable resources in BMD especially, the difficulties involved in intercepting missiles once they are in flight are awesome. At the moment, European NATO envisages that the whole of its territory will be in range of ballistic missiles, some armed with WMD, by 2010. The expansion of NATO eastwards is compounding this problem. An active defense is unlikely to materialize in the foreseeable future, except perhaps for the protection of deployed forces. This means that the reliance on deterrence and counterforce is likely to persist, prompting questions about the precise circumstances in which military force will actually be used: will it be as an act of prevention, or pre-emption or of retaliation? The article covers the following themes: |