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The Increasing Threat Posed to Israel
by the Qasam Rockets

Azriel Lorber

This article about Qasam rockets was adapted from an article on the topic, originally published (in English) on an Israeli website dealing with developments in the field of Middle East armaments – www.me-monitor.com.

 

Introduction

Artillery rockets have been in use for military purposes in various countries for hundreds of years but their use declined towards the end of the 19th century. Rockets of that type have many advantages: Despite the fact that a complete rocket-powered shell is bigger and heavier than a standard artillery shell, there is no need for a heavy, expensive-to-manufacture barrel and with a relatively minor investment, it is possible to acquire rockets with longer range than that of standard artillery. Most significantly, one can achieve higher and more effective rate of fire than possible with barrels. However, with the then current methods of production, the rockets’ accuracy was minimal, and they were effective primarily against extremely large and stationary, targets – cities, for example. In the late 19th century, with the perfection of the barrel artillery with the introduction of the rifling in the barrel, breech loading and the use of elongated shells, rockets disappeared almost completely from the battlefield, other than utilization for purposes of signaling and dropping anchors and ropes.

During World War II, rockets enjoyed a renaissance. A better understanding of aerodynamics and ballistics, together with improved production methods, facilitated uniformity in trajectory and minimized the inaccuracies in hitting targets of smaller sizes. While rockets did not reach the accuracy of cannons or mortars, they definitely reached a standard where they could be tactically used on the battlefield. When dealing with conspicuously large targets, like rings of fortifications and deployment areas for regiment or division-sized forces, the problem of lack of accuracy becomes negligible. The Russians were the first ones to introduce rockets of that sort on a massive scale. Those were the Katyushas, or as the Germans called them, “Stalin’s organ”, because of the similarity between the launcher barrels and the organ pipes. However, all armies used one form or another of rocket artillery: the Americans (in order to clear the beaches before amphibious landings), the British, the Germans and even the Japanese.

Rocket motors and the science involved in developing and producing rockets, were for many years considered a mysterious science whose secrets were only in the hands of an elite few, and, truth be told, until the end of World War II, that was more or less the case. The competition between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War and especially the race to space led to a striking change in the area of rockets. First, research in the area of rocket propulsion has significantly expanded and tens of thousands of popular and technical articles and hundreds of books dealing with all aspects of rockets and ballistics, have been published in myriad languages. Second, the extensive occupation with the development and production has brought about an increase in the number of people involved in that area, ranging from low-level technicians to famous scientists. Today, throughout the world, university courses dealing with a variety of topics related to rockets and guided missiles are offered at every university with a mechanical, aeronautical or chemical engineering department and extensive professional literature is regularly published in professional journals and presented in scientific conferences, which for all intents and purposes are open to everyone. All the information necessary to develop and produce rocket engines, different types of rocket fuels and warheads is available today on the free market to anyone with a few dollars or an Internet access. Furthermore, in all corners of the Earth there are people with extensive military experience in artillery and practical operational experience in implementing those systems.

 Artillery Rockets in Palestinian Hands

Although ostensibly, the Palestinian “intifada” is directed against the “Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory”, the Palestinians have no qualms about attacking civilian targets inside Israel proper. In fact, they even prefer that type of warfare to attacking military targets in the “occupied territories”. The method of choice in that terrorist warfare is the suicide bomber equipped with a powerful explosive device, who serves as a “guided missile” homing in on Israeli citizens on buses, in shopping centers and coffee shops and even attending religious ceremonies. The success of that tactic is guaranteed given the proximity between Israelis and Palestinians and the absence of a physical barrier between them, enabling the easy infiltration of terrorists into Israeli territory.

The ability of Palestinian terrorist organizations to initiate these attacks is extremely limited in those areas where an effective physical barrier exists, as in the Gaza Strip, for example. And therefore the Palestinians chose to exchange the maneuverability of the suicide bomber with the firepower of longer-range artillery weapons. As they lack the ability to deploy gun artillery and from their perspective even firing mortar shells is problematic, they sought a different measure within their technological capabilities. The solution was found in the form of rocket fire. Although for purely military use, significant amounts of these weapons are required and technically they must have a high level of reliability and accuracy, these requirements are much less severe when speaking of a terrorist weapon aimed at population centers. Various military rockets have already been implemented in the past in various locales as a weapon of terrorism against population centers but the repeated Israeli successes in frustrating Palestinian smuggling of weapons (Santorini, Karine-A and the pressure on the tunnels in the Rafah District), along with the propaganda defeats which ensued from those failures, prodded the Palestinians to find another, more secure, source for those weapons.

Despite the basic sophistication involved in the design of a rocket motor, world-wide proliferation of rocket propulsion technology solved this problem for the Palestinians. They were thus encouraged them to attempt to produce rockets of that type in home workshops operated by the various terrorist organizations and ultimately they developed an independent production capability in this area. Short-range rockets, called “Qasam”, are fired from Palestinian territory and serve as a substitute for the suicide bomber, to carry out the same mission – increasing the number of casualties among the Israeli population.

There is no reliable information regarding the number of rockets which were produced, the number of accidents in production and deployment and not even regarding the number which were fired but did not explode. The present assessment is that more than three hundred homemade rockets were fired, and that number is sufficient to cause headaches to the Israeli decision makers. As mentioned above, their primary advantage lies in the fact that they do not require a heavy barrel to serve as a launcher, and two connected metal rods or angled steel can fill that role (see illustration no. 1).

Fig. 1: Qasam rocket (apparently model 2) during launch

A launcher of that sort is simple to produce, easy to transport and conceal, and if the need arises, it can be left behind after the launch. The limited range of these rockets also does not constitute a real limitation, as appropriate targets are located within their range. And despite that fact, the terrorist organizations are unceasingly taking steps to increase their range. First, it will allow them greater flexibility in choosing targets or launching sites. Second, a longer range, resulting from a more powerful motor, can be traded-off to a shorter-range rocket with a heavier warhead.

The Palestinian terrorist organizations incessantly make an effort to upgrade the Qasam rockets’ payload capabilities. The first model, the Qasam-1, had a short range, a few kilometers. Later, the Palestinians began producing the rockets on the West Bank as well. However, Operation “Defensive Shield”, for all intents and purposes, liquidated the Palestinian effort to expand the circle of terrorism. The development and production continue in the Gaza Strip, and two models of the more sophisticated rockets are now in use:

 

Qasam-2

Qasam-3

Diameter (mm.)

115

170

Length (mm.)

1,800

2,000

Range (km.)

7 - 10

10

Warhead weight – total/explosive (kg.)

8/5

20/10

 Note: Some of the above figures are educated assessments based on a variety of factors.

Technical Data of the Qasam Rockets

Design of the Rocket Engine:

An interesting facet of the Palestinian effort in this area is the technical aspect, which to a certain degree reveals the thought processes and the problems of the rocket designers.

Short-range missiles and rockets are exclusively based on motors propelled by solid fuel. The solid fuel, known as the grain, is entered into a casing made of metal or aluminum. At the rear end, an exhaust nozzle or a system of exhaust nozzles is affixed, the purpose of which is to transform the pressure created in the motor casing into thrust. Conventional (standard) solid fuels are produced through complex chemical processes replete with safety mechanisms, as each one of their component materials, and most certainly the final product, are volatile or explosive and careless handling is likely to cause a large-scale disaster. As the semi-underground terrorist organizations are incapable of creating these fuels, they chose a simpler composition, produced from readily available and less dangerous materials. The standard fuel in their possession is composed of 60% potassium nitrate and 40% sugar. Potassium nitrate can be freely purchased on the civilian market, as it is a type of widely used chemical fertilizer. The final product is a square fuel grain whose diagonal fits into the inside diameter of the motor casing. (The inner space of the motor casing is not insulated against the flame. Since the motor burns for only a short time, about one second, no damage will be caused to the metal casing.) The aft bulkhead, containing the nozzles, is then screwed on and a few spot welds are applied to prevent unscrewing. Welding, even a careful one, while the motor is loaded with fuel, is a dangerous action, which would not be allowed in any proper manufacturing plant. The Palestinians use this method and, as mentioned above, we have no information regarding the number of mishaps, which occurred during production.


Fig. 2: A grain of solid fuel for a Qasam rocket.


Fig. 3: A seven-nozzle configuration on a Qasam rocket.


Fig. 4: The rear end of a Qasam rocket after one nozzle was torn off.

The early rockets had a single exhaust nozzle but all later rockets were equipped with seven nozzles (see Fig.3). This arrangement is less effective in terms of the thrust of the rocket motor but it is possible that the Palestinians chose this configuration for two reasons. First, the number of nozzles will minimize the effects of production inaccuracies on the trajectory of the rocket. Second, it was apparently easier to produce smaller nozzles, either by means of turning (on a lathe) or direct drilling of the aft bulkhead, and it is certainly more economical in terms of use of materials than turning a single relatively large nozzle. It is interesting to note that these nozzles are not canted, like the nozzles of the “Katyusha” rockets and thus no roll is imparted to these rockets. Such roll significantly enhances the accuracy of the rocket’s trajectory but on the other hand requires considerable beefing-up of the launcher, and in any case, complicates production. One gets the sense that simplicity of production is a dominant consideration for the Palestinians.

It seems that the earlier rockets were equipped with nozzles screwed onto the rear wall (see Fig. 4, in which one of the nozzles was detached when the rocket hit the ground). Now apparently in an attempt to simplify production, the nozzles are directly drilled in the rear bulkhead. The material is plain steel but here too, because of the short burn time, nozzle throat erosion, which is usually the most vulnerable area in rockets with longer burn times, is insignificant.  

 In terms of classical rocketry, the whole design is very inefficient. It is doubtful if this motor is capable of producing an Isp of more than 130 seconds. (Isp – in seconds – represents the efficiency of a rocket motor as a producer of thrust, and it is a function of the quality of the fuel, the motor's overall design and the pressure of combustion inside the motor.) In comparison, the simplest standard rocket motor delivers an Isp of approximately 200 seconds and in a sophisticated design can reach approximately 300 seconds. However, in the conditions of the current arena, even a motor of this sort serves its purpose.

The Warhead Design

The warhead is composed of a simple metal shell with a conical configuration. The explosive is a mixture of urea nitrate and TNT in various ratios, depending mostly on the current availability of TNT, smuggled into the Gaza Strip or extracted from standard military ammunition. While again the urea nitrate is not an ideal explosive, like the potassium nitrate mentioned above, it is a standard chemical fertilizer that can be obtained on the free market. The fuse is a simple device consisting of an empty small arms casing filled with an explosive booster material and the firing cap is aligned opposite a spring-loaded nail. When hitting the ground, the nail moves forward, hits the firing cap, activates the booster, which then detonates the explosive.  No safety catches or "safe & arm" mechanisms to prevent premature detonation are employed – but with sufficiently careful handling, it can work. Furthermore, there were efforts to improve the lethality of the warheads by equipping them with a nose probe that will enable them to explode a foot or so above ground.

There are no technical barriers (within limits) to a moderate scaling-up of both the size and the range of these devices. On the other hand, the real performance of these rockets (range and accuracy) is probable a mystery to the Palestinians themselves since the only firing range they do have is towards the sea. Thus the exact descriptions of fall of shot locations, provided in the Israeli news media, probably help the Palestinians quite a lot, by providing range and deviation information. It can be safely assumed that it is only a question of time before such rockets with increased range, and possibly with better accuracy, will materialize.

While artillery rockets are not the only terrorist weapons used by the Palestinians, from their point of view, these devices do have some advantages, when compared with other weapons. They are simpler to operate than mortars, by definition have a longer range than mines, and after firing, their simple launchers can in fact be abandoned. Compared with the complications involved in recruiting and use of suicidal volunteers, these are ideal weapons. What's more, there is no problem of information derived from investigating the incident and, obviously, no security guards can stop them.

The primary terrorist organization involved in manufacturing and firing the Qasam family of rockets is the Hamas. The strategic role that the Hamas plans for its rockets is not unlike that of the Hizbullah rockets along the Israeli-Lebanese border. The Hizbullah brandish its Iranian supplied rockets, which can hit Israeli metropolitan areas like Haifa, as a sort of strategic deterrence, allowing it the freedom to harass Israeli targets near the border, with impunity. There is little doubt that the Hamas would like to see its own rocket force fulfilling the same role along the perimeter of the Gaza Strip, and in the future, along the borders of the promised Palestinian state.

One ray of hope lies in the fact that while these can be very effective terrorist weapons with definite potential to become a genuine threat, they are as yet too primitive to be of more than a nuisance value. To be a real threat will require better performance, greater numbers, better equipped production facilities, a significant investment of capital, and a serious testing system. However, increasing the scope of the activity to that extent increases the chance that the entire project will be more easily detected and destroyed. For this to be successful would require constant monitoring of Palestinian expansion efforts, along with a quick introduction of appropriate quick-response capabilities and countermeasures, which could nip this threat in the bud.