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Jerusalem Cloakroom #203
Palestinian Emigration/Births Defy Israel’s Demographic
Fatalism
by Yoram Ettinger
yoramtex@netvision.net.il
April 12, 2007
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The assumption that Jews are doomed to
become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean has been
based on grossly erroneous assumptions, including projected heavy
net-immigration, over-projected Arab fertility rate and under-projected
Jewish fertility rate. A 67% robust Jewish majority over 98.5% of the land
west of the Jordan River (without Gaza) is a long-term documented phenomenon,
benefiting from a demographic momentum.
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According to Israel’s largest daily,
Yedioth Acharonot (April 8, 2007), and largely based on findings by the
American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG,
www.aidrg.com):
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38% of Palestinians wish to emigrate,
according to a February 2007 survey conducted by A-Najah University in Nablus
and a survey conducted by Nabil Kukali’s research center in Beit Sakhur. A
September 2006 study, by Bir Zeit University, indicated that 44% of the 20-30
age group, and 32% of the total Palestinian
population, want to emigrate.
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45,000 emigration requests were
submitted to foreign consulates during the second half of 2006.
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Yoram Ettinger, of AIDRG: "Until 2000
most emigrants were Christians, but since then most have been Moslems,
bureaucrats, intellectuals and businessmen. Palestinian net-emigration has
been a regional phenomenon since 1950."
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Palestinian annual average
net-emigration has exceeded 10,000, reaching 16,000 in 2005, and a higher
level in 2006, as a result of the January 2006 Hamas ascension to power.
Emigration has increased substantially, while the PA has become the highest
recipient of foreign aid per capita.
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Palestinian emigration increased during
the oil price boom of the 1970s and declined during the oil price slump of the
1980s. The expulsion of 300,000 Palestinians from Kuwait, and the Oslo
Accord, produced a rare brief net-immigration, but substantially lower than
assumed (about 25,000 each). Unprecedented Palestinian terrorism – since Oslo
and especially since 2000 – triggered higher net-emigration. The Norwegian
institute for social research, FAFO, contended that net-emigration amounted to
100,000 during September 2000 and November 2002 [much higher than documented
by AIDRG].
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105,000 Palestinians received Israeli ID
cards (through marriage) during 1997-2003, 150,000 since 1993 and over 250,000
since 1967.
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According to Israel’s daily, Ha’aretz
(April 12, 2007):
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The Jewish-Arab fertility gap has been
reduced to one-child [down from a 6 children gap in the 1960s]!
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The 2006 “Green Line” Arab fertility
rate is 3.6 children per woman (trending downward), compared with a 2.7 Jewish
fertility rate (trending upward).
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