Jerusalem Cloakroom #200

Demography & Israel’s National Security

by Yoram Ettinger
yoramtex@netvision.net.il

December 28, 2006

(Based on the American-Israel Demographic Research Group’s studies and forecasts – www.aidrg.com)

1. Critical policy decisions (“Road Map”, “Two State Solution”, “Disengagement”, “Convergence”) are based on grossly erroneous demographic assumptions, which have led to demographic fatalism and demographobia (illogical fear of Palestinian demography).
    

2. No demographic machete hovers over Israel’s throat. Israel’s demographic problem is not lethal. It has been mitigated over the last 100 years: 8% Jewish minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean in 1900 (birth of modern Zionism); 33% Jewish minority in 1947; A 60% Jewish majority west of the Jordan River including Gaza, and a 67% Jewish majority excluding Gaza in 2006.
    

3. Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) numbers for Judea & Samaria are inflated by 70% (including E. Jerusalem). They are inflated by 50% for Gaza and J&S, as documented by www.aidrg.com. Some 400,000 overseas non-de-facto residents are included in the PCBS’ numbers, over 200,000 E. Jerusalem Arabs are double-counted as West Bankers (by the PCBS) and as Israeli Arabs (by Israel), over 100,000 Palestinian legal migrants into Israel are similarly doubly-counted, some 300,000 Palestinian babies included in the numbers have never been born (per documentation of the PA Ministry of Health), over 300,000 Palestinians should be deducted on account of unrealized migration (net 50,000 projected annually since 2001) and realized emigration (over net 10,000 annually since 1950), etc.
    

4. The demographic momentum is Jewish and not Arab, as evidenced by the stagnated number of annual Arab births – within Israel’s Green Line - (36,500 in 1995 and 37,000 in 2006), while the number of Jewish births have increased from 80,400 to 107,000 during the same period. In 1995 Jewish births accounted to 69% of total Israeli births. In 2006 – estimated at 75%!
    

 As construed from – and independent of - the aforementioned AIDRG-based information, which was published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/MSPS65.pdf:

1. No retreat from Jewish geography (Judea & Samaria) is required, in order to secure Jewish demography.
    

2. A retreat from Jewish geography would wreck Jewish demography. It would facilitate a massive Palestinian immigration to Judea & Samaria and (due to economic pressures in Judea & Samaria) to Israel’s “Green Line”. Migration, more than births, has shaped the demographic balance between Jews and Arabs west of the Jordan River. On one hand, a huge Arab immigration from Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan and other Moslem countries occurred during 1830-1947, and on the other hand an annual Jewish Aliya has persisted since 1882.
    

3. Israel does not face a lethal demographic problem. It faces a lethal security problem. A retreat from geography (the 2,000-3,000 ft. high mountain ridges of Judea & Samaria - the “Golan Heights” of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv) would ease a non-lethal demographic problem, but would exacerbate the lethal security problem of the 9-15 mile sliver along the Mediterranean (terrorism, conventional military and water – 40% of Israel’s water consumption comes from Judea & Samaria). A retreat would cut off the Jewish state from its roots – its Cradle of History.
    

4. Geography and topography (the essence of security) supersede demography. The Jewish state cannot manage the height of the indispensable Judea & Samaria mountain ridges, but is can manage demography through social, educational, infrastructure, economic and Aliya policies.
    

5. The Jewish state has reached a demographic critical mass – between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean - which is solid and durable, benefiting from a robust demographic momentum.