Jerusalem Cloakroom #198

Demographobia Exposed
– Historical Perspective

by Yoram Ettinger
yoramtex@netvision.net.il

November 26, 2006

1. The Jewish population between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean has grown 164 times since 1882, while the Arab population has grown 6 times.
    

2. Since 1948, the Jewish population west of the Jordan River grew almost 9 times (from 650,000 to 5,500,000), while the Arab population grew slightly over 3 times (from 1,200,000 to 3,800,000).
    

3. 1917 – an 8% Jewish minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean, 1947 – a 33% minority, 2006 – a 60% solid long-term majority since the 1960s and a 67% majority without the Gaza Strip.
    

4. 1900 – The leading Jewish historian demographer, Shimon Dubnov, projected no more than 500,000 Jews west of the Jordan River by the year 2000. 1940 – The leading Israeli statistician/demographer, Prof. Roberto Bacchi, projected a Jewish minority of 33% in 1970. 1947 – Prof. Bacchi projected a Jewish minority within the 1947 borders by 1967. 1967 – Israel’s demographic establishment projected a Jewish minority within the Green Line by 1987.
    

5. 1960s – A 6 children fertility rate gap between an Arab and a Jewish woman within Israel’s “Green Line”. 2006 – a 0.9 child fertility rate gap (3.7:2.8)! The Jewish fertility rate in Israel is the highest in the industrialized world.
    

6. Fertility rates have been reduced dramatically – during the last 20 years – in the Third World, Muslim and Arab countries. Iran’s fertility rate has shrunk to 1.98 from 9 children per woman 25 years ago. Egypt’s has declined from 7 to 2.5 children and Jordan has decreased from 8 to 3 children.
    

7. Jewish Aliya (immigration) into Israel has been in action – annually – since 1882, while a net average annual emigration of over 10,000 has characterized the Arab population of Judea and Samaria (especially) and Gaza since 1950.
    

8. Since 1995 the annual number of Arab births, within Israel’s Green Line, has stabilized around 37,000 (due to Israelization/Westernization process), while the annual number of Jewish births has increased by 34% (from 80,400 in 1995 to 107,000 in 2006).
    

9. Israel has faced a demographic problem (which has been mitigated since 1900), but there is no demographic machete over the throat of the Jewish state. Demography is not an existential threat to the Jewish state. Therefore, there is no need to retreat from Jewish geography in order to secure Jewish demography. In fact, a retreat from Jewish geography would upset the migration balance in the area, facilitating a potential immigration of 1-2 million Palestinians into Judea and Samaria and from there (due to economic pressure) to “the Green Line”, thus wrecking Jewish demography.
    

10. Demography is tenuous, subject to government’s policy. On the other hand, the geography and topography of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria (the “Golan Heights” of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv) and the 9-15 mile sliver between the Mediterranean and the 1949 Lines, are fixtures, which cannot be tempered by human beings. A retreat from Judea and Samaria could pose an existential threat to the Jewish state.