Jerusalem Cloakroom #150

US/Israel Interests – Judea & Samaria (J&S) Mountain Ridges

by Yoram Ettinger
yoramtex@netvision.net.il

March 15, 2004

1. Inflaming Terrorism. An Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, Judea & Samaria would reward terrorism, thus inflaming Palestinian and regional terrorism, exacerbating Palestinian-Israeli friction, undermining the stability of the Hashemite regime, aggravating Israel-Egypt relations, drawing the US deeper into the Oslo-driven quagmire.
    

2. From Burden to Deterrence. In 1967 Israel was transformed from a strategic liability – whose weakness fueled Arab radicalism – to a strategic asset. Fending off another Arab offensive, and reclaiming control of the mountain ridges of J&S, provided Israel with the capability to deter regional aggressors, thus enhancing stability of pro-US regimes (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt), extending US power-projection and providing the US with invaluable intelligence and surveillance.
    

3. US Power Projection. In 1970 (while the US was bogged down in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos) Israel forced a Syrian withdrawal from Jordan, thus averting a pro-Soviet surge into Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf. A pre-1967 Israel (without the mountain ridges of J&S) would not be able to deter Syria, nor would it be able to bomb – in 1981 – Iraq’s nuclear reactor, which has provided the US with the 1991 and 2003 conventional option against Iraq.
    

4. Mideast Volatility Requires a Strong Israel. The Mideast is the world’s most violently unpredictable region. Iran was transformed swiftly from an ally to a foe. Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt could be taken over by rogue regimes. An eventual US withdrawal from Iraq could produce more upheaval than the one it intended to rectify. A deterring Israel would, then, become more vital – to US interests – than before. A withdrawal from Gaza and J&S would devastate Israel’s posture of deterrence, reverting it back to a strategic burden, denying the US an effective ally.
    

5. US Strategic Asset. The post-1967 and 1970 Israel has been compared, by Alexander Haig, to “The largest US aircraft carrier, which can never be sunk, does not require a single US serviceman, and is located at a most vital area for US interests.”
    

6. J&S Mountain Ridges are the world’s best tank obstacle (3,000 ft. steep slope facing east) and a dream invader’s platform (2,000 ft. moderate slope over towering Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa). The 1991 and 2003 Gulf War were not decided by missiles, but by ground forces, which highlights the centrality of ground features. The presence of Arab tanks in Tel Aviv is more lethal than 100 missiles hitting Tel Aviv. Israel has no margin of error, and J&S constitute Israel’s insurance policy against lethal human errors (Israel’s pre-1967 width is shorter than the Dallas-Fort Worth airport!).
    

7. High-Tech Systems (which eventually become low tech) cannot replace high-ground features (which always remain high-ground).
    

8. Long-Term US and Israeli visions/interests should not be sacrificed on the alter of quick gratification, wishful-thinking and oversimplification.