The Demographic Scare –
Disinformation Exposed (Part 2)

January 30, 2004
(Part One was published on November 7, 2003)

Jewish Majority West of the Jordan River Since 1967

Fact: 80:20 Jewish majority within the Green Line since 1967, in spite of pessimistic projections, the inclusion of East Jerusalem, and unification of Arab families.
Fact: 60:40 Jewish majority west of the Jordan River since 1967, in spite of pessimistic projections. In 2003: 5.4MN Jews and 3.7MN Arabs (1.2MN within the Green Line, 1.5MN in Judea & Samaria, 1MN in Gaza).
Fact: In 1922 - 85,000 Jews (11%) and 672,000 Arabs west of the Jordan River, in 1948 - 650,000 Jews (35%), and by 1952 the ratio was 50:50 due to Jewish immigration, which has been severely underestimated by pessimistic projections.

The Failure of Pessimistic Demographic Projections

Pessimist projections have ignored the significance of Jewish immigration (each year since 1882), the declining Arab birth rate, the rise of Jewish birth rate and Arab emigration. Prof. De La Pergolla stated on October 23, 1987 that Soviet Jewry would not immigrate to Israel. One million did! Current immigration potential is 1-1.5 million.
Linear extrapolation has derailed pessimistic projections. It erroneously assumes that present trends would persist in the future. The longer the projection, the worse the error.
The late chief statistician, Prof. Bacchi (the mentor of contemporary pessimistic projections), contended in 1940 that in 1970 there would be 4 million Arabs and 1 million Jews in Israel. The known Jewish historian, Dubnov (who opposed the idea of a Jewish State), stated in 1900 that by 2000 there would be a Jewish minority of 500,000 Jews in Israel.
Linear extrapolation failed Bacchi’s students, in 1967, when they projected an Arab majority west of the Jordan River by 2000.

Sharp Decline in Arab Birth Rate

In 1970 there were 8 children per Arab family. In 2003 – 4 children per “Green Line” Arab family and 5.6 in Judea & Samaria.
Arab birth rate was 3 times the Jewish rate in 1967 and less than 2 times in 2003 (2.9 children per Jewish family - the highest in the Western world).

If the pessimistic projections were realistic, then they should also apply to the Galilee, Negev and Jerusalem.
If Herzl and Ben Gurion would have acted in accordance with demography, there would not have been a Jewish state!
Demography can be changed via immigration, economy and education. The threatening topography of Judea & Samaria cannot be changed.